How USF Basketball Can Build a Winning Season and Exceed Expectations

Watching Nic Cabanero’s commitment to UST, shunning outside talks to run it back after a historic Final Four run, got me thinking about our own situation here at USF. That kind of loyalty and belief in a program’s upward trajectory is infectious, and it’s precisely the culture we need to cultivate if we want to build a winning season that truly exceeds expectations. Let’s be honest, expectations for USF basketball have been modest for a while. But in today’s landscape, with the transfer portal buzzing and NIL changing the game, a quick turnaround isn’t just a pipe dream—it’s a viable strategy. The blueprint is there, and it starts with embracing a mindset shift. We’re not just aiming for a winning record; we’re aiming to create a story so compelling that players, like Cabanero did, choose to stay and build something special.

The foundation, in my view, has to be defensive identity. It’s the one thing you can control every single night, regardless of how your shots are falling. Last season, we allowed an average of 74.2 points per game. That’s got to come down, aggressively. I’d love to see us aim for the high 60s. How do we get there? It’s about instilling a gritty, communicative, and switch-everything mentality. Think of the best mid-major surprises in March—they almost always hang their hat on frustrating opponents. We have the athletes; it’s about cohesion and relentless effort. Offensively, we need more purpose. Too many possessions last year ended with a contested jumper late in the shot clock. We need a primary action we can go to under pressure, whether it’s a high ball screen for a playmaker or a well-designed set to get a shooter like, say, a hypothetical standout wing, an open look from the corner. Ball movement has to improve from last year’s average of just 11.5 assists per game. I want to see that number climb above 15. It sounds simple, but unselfishness is a choice, and it’s a contagious one.

Now, the elephant in the room: roster construction. The portal is a double-edged sword, but for a program in our position, it’s an accelerant. We lost our leading scorer and rebounder. That’s a huge hole. But instead of seeing it as a setback, it’s a chance to be surgical. We don’t need just the best available player; we need the right player. A veteran point guard who values possession, a stretch-four who can space the floor, and most importantly, a culture fit. I’m talking about guys who watch film on their own, who are the first in and last out of the gym. That’s how you build the foundation Cabanero exemplified. Alongside that, player development is non-negotiable. Who on our current roster can make a leap? I’m looking at our sophomore forward who showed flashes of a reliable mid-range game. If he adds 8-10 pounds of muscle and extends his range to the three-point line, even at a 34% clip, he becomes a completely different weapon. That’s the kind of individual progression that transforms a team.

Building a schedule that sets us up for success is an art form. I’m a big believer in challenging yourself early, but with intention. One or two “buy games” at home to build confidence are fine, but we need to target 3-4 high-profile non-conference opponents where we can compete, even if we’re underdogs. A close loss on the road to a ranked team does more for a team’s belief and NCAA NET ranking than a 20-point win over a cupcake. Then, conference play is about stealing games you’re not supposed to win. In the AAC, that means finding a way to split with the top-tier teams and dominating at home against the rest. Protecting our home court is paramount; we need to make the Yuengling Center a fortress where opponents dread playing. That atmosphere starts with the students and the community believing something different is happening. Winning those early, gritty non-conference games is what fuels that belief.

Ultimately, exceeding expectations is about narrative. It’s about a collective buy-in that’s bigger than any individual stat line. When I see a player like Nic Cabanero turn down greener pastures for another shot with his brothers, I see the ultimate competitive advantage. Can we foster that here? It starts with transparency from the coaching staff, a clear vision for the future, and celebrating the small victories that build trust. A winning season for USF basketball isn’t just about finishing above .500. It’s about seeing tangible growth, playing a brand of basketball that’s exciting and tough, and entering March with a sense that we’re a team no one wants to draw. It’s about laying a foundation so strong that our best players can’t imagine leaving. That’s the standard. It’s ambitious, but in the new era of college basketball, it’s absolutely within reach if we make the right choices, on and off the court. The work starts now, and frankly, I can’t wait to see it unfold.